最近数年间爆发的传染病例如SARS和H5N1禽流感等显示，动物性病原体能获得在人类之间传播的能力。
因此，监控这些动物性病原体在人类之间的传染力对于疾病的早期诊断和控制就变得非常重要。在发表于刊物《公共科学图书馆·计算生物学》（PLoS Computational Biology）上的文章中，来自荷兰和英国的作者利用来自一个小型研究的数据评估了H5N1禽流感在人类日常接触中的传播能力，这一小型研究主要针对人类家庭中的病毒传播情况。
人类家庭中的传染源可能来自以下3个方面：第一，致病动物；第二，被动物所感染的人类（即一级人类－人类传播）；第三，被人类所感染的人类（即二级人类－类传播）。对于大范围传播而言，就需要二级人类－人类传播非常有效率。在文章中，科学家们发明了一种方法来分析上一次在荷兰暴发的H7N7高致病性禽流感的人－人间传播的广度。结果证明，二级人类－人类传播确实可以解释荷兰的人类感染数据。
由于以上的研究主要针对家庭内的病毒传播，因此van Boven等作者认为，现有的药物能预防的家庭感染不到一半。对于动物病原在人类之间的传播的持续监控非常重要。van Boven表示：“很显然，对于公共健康而言，能尽快的对二级人类之间的病毒传播作出检测是至关重要的。”在科学家们的文章中提供了其中一种可行的方法，即利用那些能很容易的从传染病中收集的数据。
Detecting transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households
Recent outbreaks of emerging diseases such as SARS and H5N1 avian influenza have underlined the fact that animal pathogens may acquire the ability to spread efficiently in humans – but as yet have not.
Monitoring the transmissibility of pathogens from animals in humans is therefore key for early detection of epidemic spread, and for effective control. In a study published in PLoS Computational Biology, the authors from the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have used data from a small but well-defined study of H7N7 avian influenza virus transmission in human households to estimate this transmissibility in humans living in close contact.
Infection clusters in human housholds may arise from transmission from (i) animals (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). It is efficient secondary human-to-human transmission that is a prerequisite for pandemic spread. In this paper, a method is developed of analyzing the extent of direct human-to-human transmission in a previous outbreak of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus in the Netherlands. There is evidence to show that secondary human-to-human transmission is indeed a plausible explanation for the Dutch infection data.
Infection clusters in human housholds may arise from transmission from (i) animals (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). It is efficient secondary human-to-human transmission that is a prerequisite for pandemic spread. In this paper, a method is developed of analyzing the extent of direct human-to-human transmission in a previous outbreak of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus in the Netherlands. There is evidence to show that secondary human-to-human transmission is indeed a plausible explanation for the Dutch infection data.
Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission, van Boven et al. concluded that less than half of the household infections could have been prevented with current antiviral drugs. It is important to continuously monitor the transmissibility of animal pathogens to and between humans. “Obviously, for public health it is vital that such emerging secondary human-to-human transmission in the human population is detected as quickly as possible”, says van Boven. This paper provides a method of doing so, using data that are easily collected for most infectious diseases.
Citation: van Boven M, Koopmans M, Du Ry van Beest Holle M, Meijer A, Klinkenberg D, et al. (2007) Detecting emerging transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households. PLoS Comput Biol 3(7): e145. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145
Source: Public Library of Science
Citation: van Boven M, Koopmans M, Du Ry van Beest Holle M, Meijer A, Klinkenberg D, et al. (2007) Detecting emerging transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households. PLoS Comput Biol 3(7): e145. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145
Source: Public Library of Science
